Enter any Supermarket, you will find all food prices shooting up. Food industry analyst Phil Lempert estimates that about 40,000 items — nearly half of all supermarket products — may be impacted by new tariffs, either directly or through ingredients.
The tariffs, part of President Trump’s push for reciprocal trade, aim to counteract what he called decades of unfair treatment by other nations. The plan includes higher duties on goods from the so-called “Dirty 15,” nations with high trade surpluses and barriers to U.S. exports. Here is an estimate of what goes up as there is no price going down:
Fruit Prices Mixed; Avocados Likely Safe
Imported fruits from Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Peru — all subject to new 10% tariffs — may rise in price, with Lempert warning of potential supply issues due to perishability. However, avocados, 87.6% of which are sourced from Mexico, will remain tariff-free as Mexico avoided inclusion on the White House’s list of affected countries.
Vegetables from Key Partners May Be Spared
Vegetables are largely imported from Mexico (69%) and Canada (20%), both of which escaped the latest tariffs. However, produce from other listed nations — like Guatemala, Peru, and China — could see cost increases. The USDA notes that fresh vegetable imports grew 200% between 1998 and 2020, indicating growing reliance on international supply chains.
Seafood Prices Set to Jump
Up to 85% of seafood consumed in the U.S. is imported. Countries like Vietnam (46% tariff), India (26%), Indonesia (32%), and Chile (10%) are key suppliers and were all hit by tariffs. “The U.S. seafood industry can’t cover that shortfall,” said Andy Harig from the Food Industry Association, warning of price hikes in seafood aisles.
Coffee Imports Face 10% Tariffs
The U.S., the world’s largest coffee importer, gets over 60% of its roasted coffee from Brazil and Colombia, both hit with 10% tariffs. Prices could rise, especially for Latin American beans which dominate the market.
Alcohol, Especially Wine and Beer, to Take a Hit
Imported alcohol is expected to be “clobbered,” Lempert told NPR. The EU faces 20% tariffs, affecting wine from France, Spain, and Italy. Beer imports from the Netherlands and Ireland were also targeted. Aluminum tariffs may further inflate canned beer prices, even for Mexican brands like Modelo and Corona, which otherwise escaped tariffs.
Skyrocketing Olive Oil and Cheese Costs
Spain, Italy, and Greece — the top sources for olive oil — face 20% tariffs, driving up already high prices. Lempert warned prices will go “even higher.” Cheeses like brie, Gouda, and Parmigiano-Reggiano from the EU could also become pricier due to similar duties.
Barring U.S. beef, which is domestically sourced, historic high prices and reduced cattle herds may cause slight increases. Rice is also mostly homegrown, though jasmine and basmati varieties from Thailand and India — both facing tariffs — could see modest price bumps.
